Every halving cycle, lined up from day zero.
All four cycles drawn on the same axis, aligned to halving day. See how today's cycle compares with the prior three at the same number of days after the halving.
Bitcoin is currently tracking below every previous cycle at the same point after the halving.
Historically, two of the three previous cycles had already reached their major peak by this point after the halving. The current cycle is behaving differently — flatter and slower, and potentially more structurally supported by ETF demand. This does not guarantee future upside, but it does suggest the current cycle is not following the classic four-year rhythm cleanly.
Price · normalised to halving = 1×
Where are we, compared with previous cycles?
Price change since the halving, measured at the same day after the halving (820 days) in each cycle. Today's cycle is running below all prior cycles at the same point after the halving.
Is this drop normal?
How far below its own peak each cycle has traded, by day after the halving (0% = at the cycle high). Today's correction is drawn against the full drawdown history of the prior three cycles.
Bitcoin is about 48% below its cycle high. At the same point after the halving, the 2012, 2016 and 2020 cycles averaged about 70% below their highs — so this drawdown is shallower than past cycles at the same stage.
When could the current cycle top and bottom?
Highs and lows from the three completed cycles, measured in days after the halving. They cluster — and the cards below project those windows onto the current cycle (cycle 5), which began at the April 2024 halving.
Full cycle view.
Cycle 5's high so far ($122.35K) landed at day 532 — inside this window.
Today is inside this window.
Across the three completed cycles, the bull-market high landed 371–546 days after the halving, and the bear-market low 777–924 days after. Cycle 5's highest price so far came at day 532 — inside that historical peak window. Today (day 820) sits inside the window where the last three cycles reached their bear-market low — roughly Jun 2026 to Oct 2026. This is the rhythm of only three cycles, and the ETF era may break it — context, not a forecast.
Cycle-by-cycle stats
| Cycle | Halving | Reward | At halving | Peak | Peak gain | Days to peak | Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cycle 2 — first halving | Nov 28, 2012 | 25 BTC | $12.33 | $1.13K | +9103% | 371d | -99% |
Cycle 3 — second halving | Jul 9, 2016 | 12.5 BTC | $651.94 | $19.64K | +2913% | 525d | -97% |
Cycle 4 — third halving | May 11, 2020 | 6.25 BTC | $8.59K | $73.08K | +751% | 1402d | -88% |
Cycle 5 — fourth halvingcurrent | Apr 19, 2024 | 3.125 BTC | $63.76K | $124.82K | +96% | 535d | -57% |
Diminishing returns
Each cycle's peak gain has been smaller than the last — 92×, 30×, 8.5× for the 2012, 2016, 2020 cycles. If that pattern continues, this cycle would deliver a far smaller multiple than past cycles rather than a repeat of early returns. History, not a forecast.
ETF-era divergence
The 2024 cycle is the first with US spot Bitcoin ETFs — a source of demand that did not exist in 2012, 2016 or 2020. If that demand stays structural, it could change the shape of the cycle relative to history. The flatter, cooler profile so far (above) is the chief evidence — though it's still early, and this is not a guarantee.