Research Findings
Original, citable Bitcoin research — a permanent library of historical discoveries. Every finding receives a permanent HalvingLens Research ID and is supported by the data already inside the platform. Evidence first, conclusions second. Historical context, not prediction.
A layered library, built in tiers — from single-figure briefs to full papers. Start with the foundational papers, then work outward. Any tier still in development is shown plainly and never linked until it is live.
- 01FoundationalStart-here papers every reader should begin with
- 02Research PapersFull, citable findings with live evidence
- 03Evidence Briefs (HL-E)One-figure answers to a single question
- 04Research Notes (HL-N)Short desk observations from the record
- 05Myth vs RealityCommon assumptions tested against the record
The paper every subscriber should read first. It sets the method and the standard for everything that follows.
Extreme Fear: Weakness, or Opportunity?
Across the Fear & Greed record (2018 onward), days of extreme fear preceded much stronger one-year average returns than days of greed — though over the following one to three months, fearful periods actually lagged greedy ones.
Does Taking Profits Beat Dynamic DCA?
Across Bitcoin's full weekly history, a buy-only Dynamic DCA rule retained more Bitcoin per dollar invested than a distribution strategy that trimmed into overheated conditions — even after the distribution plan reinvested its realised profit.
A recurring series: a common assumption, what the historical data actually showed, and where to read the full evidence.
Extreme fear means Bitcoin is broken.
Since 2018, days of extreme fear were followed by some of Bitcoin's strongest one-year average returns (around +98%), well ahead of greedy periods (around +66%) — though over the next one to three months they actually lagged.
Takeaway · Extreme fear reflected how people felt, not whether the asset was finished — but it rewarded patience, not instant timing.
Read HL-R002Taking profits always beats buy-and-hold.
Across Bitcoin's history, a buy-only Dynamic DCA rule retained the largest long-term position. Trimming into overheated conditions raised cash and cut drawdowns, but gave up Bitcoin even after the profit was reinvested.
Takeaway · Profit-taking optimises for a different goal — smoother returns and realised cash — not maximum accumulation.
Read HL-R001Get each new research finding when it's published, alongside the daily research brief.
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