Have we seen this before?
The most similar moments in Bitcoin history, ranked by today's market conditions — cycle position, drawdown and price heat. Historical context, not prediction.
Jun 2022 remains the closest historical match, with similarity declining from 87% to 86% over the past week. Historical context, not a forecast.
Today's market state most closely resembles Jun 2022 (2020 cycle). Expand any moment below to see the market then, and what followed over the next 30, 60 and 90 days.
Day 756 of the 2020 cycle — about 54% below its high, with price 3.6× its halving level.
Historical outcome from this point in that cycle — not a prediction.
Similarity is a price-derived match — cycle day, drawdown from the peak, Mayer Multiple and gain since the halving — across the 2012, 2016 and 2020 cycles. Fear & Greed is shown where it existed (the index begins in 2018) but isn't used in the match. Historical context only. Past performance does not predict future results.
Historical outcomes are not predictive. Past performance does not predict future results. The 2024 cycle has a structural difference — US spot ETF demand — that did not exist in prior cycles. This is historical pattern context, not financial advice.