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Bitcoin price

Livedaily close · 31 Aug 2026
$78,533.89
+1.1%24h -0.5%7d
As of 1 Sept 2026, 11:02 UTC
Current cycle day
863

You are inside the historical bear-market low window (day 777–924 after the halving). This is context from three cycles, not a forecast.

halvinglens.com · cycle context
Bitcoin price
$78.5k
Cycle day
863 · 59%
Cycle score
64 · Neutral
Current drawdown
-36%
Fear & Greed
69 · Greed
Accumulation
Expansion
Euphoria
Blow-off top
Low window · day 777924

Phase zones derived from where the three prior cycles expanded and topped (peak window: day 371546). Days since the April 2024 halving · log price · historical context, not a forecast.

Where are we in the cycle? — answered from real price history across the 2012, 2016, 2020 and current cycles. Historical context only; not financial advice, and not a forecast.

Price in Context

Today's price against its long-term trend (200-day average), the network's average cost basis (Realised Price) and the modelled electricity cost of new supply (Estimated Mining Cost) — what the level means, not just where it is.

Bitcoin currently trades above its 200-day moving average, above Realised Price, and above its Estimated Mining Cost. These reference prices show the market trend, the average holder's cost basis, and the modelled electricity cost of producing new supply — historical context, not a prediction.

-27.5% over 1Y
Bitcoin priceThe current market price of Bitcoin.200-day averageThe average closing price across the previous 200 days — a slow-moving line that shows Bitcoin's long-term trend.Realized priceThe average on-chain acquisition cost of all Bitcoin currently in circulation — the network's aggregate cost basis.Estimated Mining CostA modelled estimate of the average electricity cost of mining one new Bitcoin, from live hashrate and documented assumptions. An estimate — not an exact break-even, support level or price floor.
halvinglens.com · price in context
24h change
+1.1%
7d change
-0.5%
vs 200-day avg
+13.1%
Above trend
vs realized price
+49.1%
Above cost basis
vs mining cost
+22.9%
Above estimate

The 1D view pulls live hourly data on demand. 1W–1Y use daily closes from the data sync, and the full-history view uses the weekly cycle series back to 2012. The headline price and 24h/7d figures are daily closes as of the last sync. The 200-day moving average is computed from the same daily closes (recovered from the Mayer-multiple series on the all-time view), and realized price comes from the live on-chain feed — it is drawn only across the window that feed covers, so the line starts where the real data starts. Estimated Mining Cost is a modelled estimate (average electricity cost per newly issued bitcoin, from live hashrate and documented assumptions — see its methodology); it is an estimate, not an exact break-even or a guaranteed support level, and the line is omitted entirely whenever its data is unavailable or more than seven days stale.

How has Bitcoin behaved month by month across the full record? Explore Bitcoin Seasonality → — monthly returns and distances from the Four Reference Prices, back to 2010.

Continue your journey

You know where the price sits against its reference prices. What does that level mean in the wider weekly picture?

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The State of Bitcoin