Myth vs Reality — evidence over folklore
Every myth below is a common assumption about Bitcoin, set against what the historical record in our research actually showed — with a link to the full paper behind each one.
Extreme fear means Bitcoin is broken.
Since 2018, days of extreme fear were followed by some of Bitcoin's strongest one-year average returns (around +98%), well ahead of greedy periods (around +66%) — though over the next one to three months they actually lagged.
Since 2018, periods of extreme fear were historically followed by some of Bitcoin's strongest one-year returns — but they were not a short-term timing signal.
Takeaway · Extreme fear reflected how people felt, not whether the asset was finished — but it rewarded patience, not instant timing.
Read HL-R002Taking profits always beats buy-and-hold.
Across Bitcoin's history, a buy-only Dynamic DCA rule retained the largest long-term position. Trimming into overheated conditions raised cash and cut drawdowns, but gave up Bitcoin even after the profit was reinvested.
Within the assumptions tested, Dynamic DCA produced greater long-term Bitcoin accumulation than a profit-taking strategy.
Takeaway · Profit-taking optimises for a different goal — smoother returns and realised cash — not maximum accumulation.
Read HL-R001