Evidence Briefs
One question. One figure. A brief is the shortest unit of HalvingLens research — a single, citable answer whose headline number recomputes live from the same engine behind our flagship tools, so it can never drift from the data. Evidence first. Historical context, not prediction.
Is Bitcoin usually fearful or greedy?
Across the Fear & Greed record since 2018, Bitcoin's market has spent more days in fear than in greed — fear, not euphoria, has been its default mood.
What has extreme fear paid, one year later?
Since 2018, days of extreme fear were followed by much stronger average one-year Bitcoin returns than days of greed — the shareable one-figure distillation of research finding HL-R002.
How much of its life has Bitcoin spent below its record high?
Across Bitcoin's full weekly history, most weekly closes have been below the prior all-time high — a new record high is a rare state, not the usual one.
A brief is the one-number version. The full research papers carry the method, the evidence in depth, and the caveats.
Get each new brief and research finding when it's published, alongside the daily research brief.
Get the daily Bitcoin Cycle Brief
One clear daily summary of where Bitcoin sits in the cycle.
- 30-second read
- What changed today
- Historical context
- What to watch next
- No hype, no predictions
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