HalvingLens Research

Research Notes

Short observations from the desk — grounded in the historical record, quicker to publish than a full paper, and always more than a single figure. Each note carries a permanent, citable ID. Evidence first. Historical context, not prediction.

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HL-N001

Citation format

HL-N###

HL-N001Research Note

Editor's PickNew

How often is Bitcoin actually overheated?

Across Bitcoin's full weekly history, the Accumulation Index sat in its 'overheated' band only a small fraction of weeks — euphoria has been rare and brief, not the default.

Read notePublished 18 Jul 2026

The library

A note is a desk observation. For the single-figure version see the Evidence Briefs; for the full method and evidence in depth, the Research Papers.

Briefs Papers

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