Bitcoin Accumulation Index
See how attractive today’s market has been, historically.
Historically, how attractive was it to accumulate Bitcoin when conditions looked like today? This index scores the environment from deep value to overheated using only real, price-based history — then shows what accumulating in similar conditions actually did next. It is historical context, not a prediction or advice.
The Accumulation Index is Historically Attractive at 38, improving 1 points this week as Bitcoin moved further below its 200-day average. A lower score is a historically more attractive environment.
- Reading — 38 out of 100 — historically attractive.
- How rare — Only 51% of Bitcoin's history has been cheaper by this price-only methodology — today is more attractive than 49% of all weeks since 2012.
- Why — Bitcoin is 1.15× its 200-day average and 1.25× its 200-week average, 32% below its running all-time high. On the HalvingLens Accumulation Score that reads 38/100 — historically attractive. Conditions sit in the lower, historically calmer part of Bitcoin's range — below the levels that have marked past cycle peaks.
- What followed historically — From comparable readings, Bitcoin's median change was +108% a year later, +548% after four years. Evidence from prior cycles, not a forecast.
- Guardrail — Educational historical context — not financial advice, not a prediction, not a buy or sell signal.
Bitcoin is 1.15× its 200-day average and 1.25× its 200-week average, 32% below its running all-time high. On the HalvingLens Accumulation Score that reads 38/100 — historically attractive. Conditions sit in the lower, historically calmer part of Bitcoin's range — below the levels that have marked past cycle peaks.
Historical context — not financial advice, not a prediction, and not a buy or sell signal.
Only 51% of Bitcoin's history has been cheaper than today by this price-only methodology. Put another way, today's conditions are more attractive than 49% of all weeks since 2012.
Historical context — not a prediction or advice.
The index through history
Every week since 2012, coloured by its accumulation environment, behind Bitcoin's price. Deep-value conditions have clustered near cycle lows; overheated conditions near the tops.
What happened when conditions looked like this
For every week in history, bucketed by its score band, the median change in Bitcoin's price 1, 2 and 4 years later. Evidence from prior cycles — not a forecast.
| Environment | 1 year later | 2 years later | 4 years later |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +90%n=125 | +376%n=125 | +1,222%n=107 |
| Attractive | +108%n=205 | +237%n=205 | +548%n=162 |
| Neutral | +52%n=188 | +72%n=149 | +442%n=112 |
| Elevated | +19%n=91 | +92%n=78 | +1,311%n=72 |
| Overheated | +15%n=64 | +30%n=64 | +929%n=64 |
726 weekly observations, 2012-11-28 → 2026-10-10. Median forward return; n = observations with a full forward window.
How to read this honestly
The 1- and 2-year columns are the most reliable: lower (more attractive) scores have historically been followed by higher returns. The 4-year column rests on only ~2–3 independent cycles and is best read as indicative, not robust. Weekly observations overlap and are not independent, and the score is reconstructed point-in-time so no future data leaks into a past reading. None of this predicts the future.
Dynamic DCA — a historical comparison
What if, instead of buying a flat amount each week, an accumulator had leaned into historically cheaper conditions and eased off in overheated ones — or gone a step further and trimmed the position in overheated stretches, banked the profit (after tax) and redeployed it on the next dip? Switch to Accumulate & Distribute for a three-way race — DCA vs Dynamic DCA vs Dynamic DCA + Distribution — and see which rule did most for long-term growth on Bitcoin's full history.
- Invested
- $62.30K
- Bitcoin
- 37.243 BTC
- Avg cost
- $1.67K
- End value
- $3.09M
- Invested
- $81.55K
- Bitcoin
- 61.792 BTC
- Avg cost
- $1.32K
- End value
- $5.13M
The only input is today's Accumulation Index band. Your weekly buy scales mechanically — more when Bitcoin is historically cheap, less when it's historically overheated. The score never says “buy” or “sell”; it just sizes a recurring buy. Historical context, not advice.
| Environment | Score | Adjustment | Weekly buy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | 0–20 | Buy 2× (double) | $200.00/wk |
| Attractive· Today | 20–40 | Buy 1.5× | $150.00/wk |
| Neutral | 40–60 | Buy 1× (base) | $100.00/wk |
| Elevated | 60–80 | Buy 0.75× | $75.00/wk |
| Overheated | 80–100 | Buy 0.5× (half) | $50.00/wk |
Right now: Accumulation Index 38/100 — Attractive, so the balanced rule would size your buy at 1.5× ($150.00/wk). A change only happens when the score crosses into a new band.
The multipliers are a sensible illustrative default, not an optimised output of the backtest. Switch between Conservative, Balanced and Aggressive above to see how scaling intensity would have changed the result.
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Bitcoin Accumulation Index 38 / 100 — Historically Attractive Historically, conditions similar to today have produced stronger long-term outcomes than average. Historical context only. Not financial advice. https://halvinglens.com/accumulation
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How the score is built
Mayer Multiple (price / 200-day average)
How stretched price is above or below its 200-day moving average — a classic, price-only heat gauge. Real and available across every cycle.
200-week MA multiple
Price relative to its 200-week moving average. Cycle lows have historically clustered near 1×; tops 3–5×. Available once ~2 years of history exists.
Drawdown from the running high
How far below its running all-time high price sits. Deep drawdowns push the score toward deep value; sitting at the high pushes it toward overheated.
What we deliberately exclude
MVRV, NUPL, ETF flows and Fear & Greed are NOT in the score: they're modelled for past cycles or didn't exist before 2018/2024, so backtesting against them would be misleading. They appear elsewhere on the site as present-day context only.
The score (0 = deep value, 100 = overheated) is a weighted blend of the three price-only factors above, computed point-in-time — every historical reading uses only the data available on that date, which is what makes the backtest legitimate. Where an input did not yet exist — the 200-week average before mid-2014 — the remaining weights are renormalised, so those early readings are two-input observations, not equivalent to the full three-input score. Methodology v1.
The Accumulation Index is educational historical context only. It is not financial advice, not a prediction, and not a buy or sell signal. Every reading describes how conditions compare with Bitcoin's own history — past behaviour is never a guarantee of future results.