Bitcoin Seasonality
How Bitcoin has behaved through the calendar year, across the full observed record — as monthly returns, or as its distance from each of the Four Reference Prices. Historical context, not a prediction.
Market Price: observed from 2010-07-18. Earlier cells are neutral — the record before a series exists is never guessed. Realised Price is observed from 2022-07-26; Est. Mining Cost is modelled from 2016-01-04.
Closest past Septembers by return: 2013 · 2022 · 2018
So far this September is running above its historical average (-2.3% vs -3.3% across 16 observed years), inside the observed range. Historical context, not a prediction.
| Month | Average | Median | Positive months | Best | Worst | Typical variation | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +8.7% | +5.2% | 56.3% | +75% ’11 | -32.2% ’15 | ±28.2 pts | 16 |
| February | +13.1% | +11.8% | 68.8% | +63.8% ’11 | -31.4% ’14 | ±27.1 pts | 16 |
| March | +10.1% | -0.9% | 50% | +181.3% ’13 | -32.8% ’18 | ±46.9 pts | 16 |
| April | +32.4% | +10.1% | 68.8% | +346.1% ’11 | -17.2% ’22 | ±83 pts | 16 |
| May | +17.5% | +6.9% | 56.3% | +149.2% ’11 | -35.4% ’21 | ±43.3 pts | 16 |
| June | +5.3% | +2.1% | 56.3% | +85.6% ’11 | -39.3% ’22 | ±28.2 pts | 16 |
| July | +8.3% | +8% | 68.8% | +39.5% ’12 | -17.4% ’11 | ±14.5 pts | 16 |
| August | -0.2% | -8.4% | 35.3% | +65.6% ’17 | -38.7% ’11 | ±23.1 pts | 17 |
| September | -3.3% | -2.3% | 43.8% | +22.7% ’12 | -37.3% ’11 | ±12.9 pts | 16 |
| October | +26.5% | +13% | 68.8% | +211% ’10 | -36.5% ’11 | ±53.5 pts | 16 |
| November | +34.4% | +8.6% | 62.5% | +450.6% ’13 | -37% ’18 | ±110 pts | 16 |
| December | +10.1% | +2.2% | 50% | +58.9% ’11 | -34.8% ’13 | ±26 pts | 16 |
November has the highest average monthly change in the record (+34.4%, n=16).
observed 2010–2026
September has the lowest average monthly change in the record (-3.3%, n=16).
observed 2010–2026
February and April and July and October closed higher most often: 68.8% of 16 observed years.
observed 2010–2026
November shows the widest typical variation (±110 points around its average, n=16).
observed 2010–2026
Average monthly change +13.5% across its record.
Strongest month on average: November (+34.4%) · weakest: September (-3.3%).
Observed from 2010-07-18.
Average monthly change +8.4% across its record.
Strongest month on average: May (+16.1%) · weakest: September (+4.1%).
The market has typically traded 13.7% above this reference (median month).
Observed from 2011-02-02.
Average monthly change +1.9% across its record.
The market has typically traded 74.2% above this reference (median month).
Observed from 2022-07-26.
Average monthly change +7.1% across its record.
Strongest month on average: May (+16.4%) · weakest: January (-14.3%).
The market has typically traded 69.7% above this reference (median month).
Modelled from 2016-01-04.
Current month: September 2026, evaluated 2026-09-13. Historical context, not a prediction.
Continue your journey
You've seen how the months have behaved across the record. Which past weeks look most like this one right now?