Methodology & data transparency
Everything HalvingLens publishes traces back to real data or is labelled as modelled. This page sets out how each metric is defined and sourced, and — critically — which figures are live, which are derived, which are modelled, and which are editorial judgement.
The four kinds of number on this site
Prices and market values fetched from public sources and refreshed daily. Facts, not interpretation.
Calculated by HalvingLens from live inputs (e.g. drawdowns, cycle-day alignment, accumulation scoring). The formula is ours; the inputs are live.
On-chain metrics we cannot yet source live are modelled for illustration and kept out of the live product — clearly marked, never shown as live.
The written read — what today's data means in historical context. Judgement, clearly the voice of the publication, never a prediction.
Update frequency & revisions
Live and derived data refresh daily. Historical values can be revised when an upstream source restates data or when a calculation is improved; when that happens the change applies across the archive so the record stays internally consistent. Editions themselves are dated and never rewritten after publication.
Metric-by-metric
- Definition
- Standardised difference between market cap and realised cap. Reads how far Bitcoin trades above or below the aggregate cost basis of every coin.
- Why we use it
- Has called every cycle top within a week (z > 7) and every bottom (z < 0). The single most quoted on-chain valuation oscillator.
- Data source
- BGeometrics · bitcoin-data.com (current cycle)
- Status
- Sourced from live market data, refreshed daily.
- Definition
- Net Unrealised Profit/Loss. Share of the network's market cap currently held in profit vs. loss — a thermometer for collective greed and fear.
- Why we use it
- Crosses 0.75 only in cycle peaks (2013, 2017, 2021). Drops below 0 in capitulation. Smooth and intuitive.
- Data source
- BGeometrics · bitcoin-data.com (current cycle)
- Status
- Sourced from live market data, refreshed daily.
- Definition
- Spot price divided by the 200-day moving average. The simplest cycle gauge — coined by Trace Mayer.
- Why we use it
- Historical tops cluster around 2.4–3.5×. Sub-1× has been a generational buy every time. Falls out of vogue, comes back every cycle.
- Data source
- derived: price / 200d SMA
- Status
- Computed by HalvingLens from live inputs (e.g. price history).
- Definition
- Daily USD value of miner issuance divided by its 365-day MA. Reads miner revenue pressure relative to recent history.
- Why we use it
- Spikes >4× have only happened at cycle tops. Sub-0.5× has historically marked the right zone to buy.
- Data source
- derived: (reward × 144 × price) / 365d SMA
- Status
- Computed by HalvingLens from live inputs (e.g. price history).
- Definition
- Balances long-term holder confidence (HODL conviction) against the cost of acquiring Bitcoin today. Low = asymmetric reward.
- Why we use it
- Low reserve risk means strong-hand conviction is high relative to price — historically an attractive, asymmetric entry. It climbs as price runs hot and long-term holders are tempted to sell.
- Data source
- BGeometrics · bitcoin-data.com (current cycle)
- Status
- Sourced from live market data, refreshed daily.
- Definition
- Where price sits relative to the long-term power-law trend. Bands run from 'Fire sale' to 'Maximum bubble territory'.
- Why we use it
- The most-shared single chart in Bitcoin culture. Used as a sentiment thermometer at every dinner-table conversation.
- Data source
- derived: per-cycle band of price vs cycle peak
- Status
- Computed by HalvingLens from live inputs (e.g. price history).
- Definition
- Spent Output Profit Ratio. The aggregate ratio between sell price and acquisition cost of every coin moved on-chain. >1 means the network is realising profit; <1 means realising loss.
- Why we use it
- Sustained SOPR < 1 has marked every major bottom — the network can no longer realise a profit. Spikes above 1.10 cluster around tops.
- Data source
- BGeometrics · bitcoin-data.com (current cycle)
- Status
- Sourced from live market data, refreshed daily.
- Definition
- The aggregate cost-basis of every coin in circulation. Spot price minus realised price tells you whether the network is in profit or in loss on average.
- Why we use it
- Spot crossing below realised price is the textbook capitulation event — has marked every bear-market bottom (2015, 2018, 2022).
- Data source
- BGeometrics · bitcoin-data.com (current cycle)
- Status
- Sourced from live market data, refreshed daily.
- Definition
- Ratio of 1-week realised value to 1–2-year realised value, multiplied by network age. Reads the imbalance between fresh hands and seasoned holders.
- Why we use it
- Crosses into the red zone only at cycle tops (2013, 2017, 2021). One of the cleanest cycle-top signals on record.
- Data source
- BGeometrics · bitcoin-data.com (current cycle)
- Status
- Sourced from live market data, refreshed daily.
Limitations & known gaps
- Several on-chain metrics are modelled and deliberately withheld from the live product until a licensed live source is connected — they are never shown as live readings.
- Historical context is not predictive. Similarity to a past moment does not imply a repeat.
- Sentiment and flow data depend on third-party providers and can lag or be revised.
Questions on methodology? See About. Historical context, not prediction; not financial advice.