Where are we in the Bitcoin cycle?
Bitcoin is currently tracking below every previous cycle at the same point after the halving.
- BTC price
- $82,562.56+1.0% · 24h
- Cycle day
- 90262% through · to 9 Oct 2026
- Phase
- Mid-cycle expansion
- Market health
- 58/100Neutral
What changed?
Last 7 daysAll 15 monitored readings held within their own ordinary 7-day ranges.
State of the cycle
Market board
Reserve Risk0.00062−4.01%Notable
0.00065 → 0.00062
A moderate move by this reading's own record.
Larger than 56% of 7-day moves · 1,529 observations since Jul 2022
Still 7% above its 30-day low.
measured to 8 Oct 2026
View Reserve RiskETF Net Flows7-calendar-day net−$681.1M−$681.1MNotable
Previous 7 days: $241.1M
A moderate move by this reading's own record.
Larger than 50% of 7-day moves · 337 observations since Jun 2025
Monthly net flows remain positive.
net over 7 calendar days · trading-day series · measured to 9 Oct 2026
View ETF Net FlowsRealised Price$53,290+0.35%Routine
$53,102 → $53,290
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 48% of 7-day moves · 1,523 observations since Jul 2022
Now at its highest in 30 days.
measured to 2 Oct 2026
View Realised PriceSOPR1.008+0.005 pointsRoutine
1.003 → 1.008
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 44% of 7-day moves · 1,523 observations since Jul 2022
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 2 Oct 2026
View SOPRDrawdown from High-34−2 pointsRoutine
-32 → -34
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 40% of 7-day moves · 5,921 observations since Jul 2010
Still 3 points above 9 Sep.
measured to 9 Oct 2026
View Drawdown from HighMayer Multiple1.15−0.04 pointsRoutine
1.18 → 1.15
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 35% of 7-day moves · 5,722 observations since Feb 2011
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 9 Oct 2026
View Mayer MultipleFear & GreedGreed64−3 pointsRoutine
67 → 64
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 34% of 7-day moves · 3,163 observations since Feb 2018
Has remained in Greed for 7 consecutive weeks.
View Fear & GreedRHODL Ratio1,185+9.01%Routine
1,087 → 1,185
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 32% of 7-day moves · 1,529 observations since Jul 2022
Now at its highest in 30 days.
measured to 8 Oct 2026
View RHODL RatioMarket Price$82,563−2.31%Routine
$84,518 → $82,563
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 27% of 7-day moves · 5,921 observations since Jul 2010
Still 6% above 9 Sep.
measured to 9 Oct 2026
View Market PriceEst. Mining Cost$64,728+3.51%Routine
$62,531 → $64,728
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 22% of 7-day moves · 902 observations since Jan 2016
Still 6% below 9 Sep.
weekly series · measured to 9 Oct 2026
View Est. Mining CostPuell Multiple1.05−0.01 pointsRoutine
1.06 → 1.05
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 19% of 7-day moves · 5,557 observations since Jul 2011
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 9 Oct 2026
View Puell Multiple200-Day Average$71,849+0.67%Routine
$71,369 → $71,849
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 18% of 7-day moves · 5,722 observations since Feb 2011
Now at its highest in 30 days.
measured to 9 Oct 2026
View 200-Day AverageAccumulation IndexHistorically Attractive390 pointsRoutine
39 → 39
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 13% of 7-day moves · 724 observations since Nov 2012
Has remained in Historically Attractive for 12 consecutive weeks.
weekly series · measured to 3 Oct 2026
View Accumulation IndexNUPL0.370+0.001 pointsRoutine
0.368 → 0.370
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 4% of 7-day moves · 1,523 observations since Jul 2022
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 2 Oct 2026
View NUPLMVRV Z-Score1.04+0.01 pointsRoutine
1.03 → 1.04
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 3% of 7-day moves · 1,523 observations since Jul 2022
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 2 Oct 2026
View MVRV Z-Score
ETF demand
7 trading days · to 9 Oct 2026Previous 7 trading days: +$1.34B
Change: −$1.72B
+$432.51M in, −$821.09M out — the largest outflow day (7 Oct 2026, −$487.07M) exceeded the week's whole net.
The week swung from net inflow to net outflow.
What did this same point look like in previous cycles?
Every cycle aligned from its halving day. Drag anywhere on the chart — or use the slider — to place all four cycles at the same day and read what actually happened.
The current cycle has the weakest return from halving of the four cycles at this stage.
The real price change each completed cycle recorded after its day 902. The current cycle shows nothing here — the current cycle's future has not happened yet.
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Historical context, not a prediction.