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$65,328.79+1.6%24h
Day 829
Four Reference PricesLive-deriveddaily close · 26 Jul 2026

Bitcoin’s Four Reference Prices

One picture of where Bitcoin trades against the market’s four most important reference points — what traders pay, where the trend sits, what holders paid, and what new supply costs to produce.

As of 27 Jul 2026, 07:07 UTC

Today’s Configuration

Above the holder cost basis and mining-cost estimate, below the trend

Bitcoin trades at $65.33K — near its 200-day moving average (−9%), above its Realised Price (+25%), and near its Estimated Mining Cost (+6%). The nearest reference price is the Estimated Mining Cost, 6% below the market. Since 2022-08, Bitcoin has spent 5.7% of weeks in this configuration. Historical context, not a prediction.

halvinglens.com · four reference prices

Generated from today’s data — the same sentence for every reader, every figure traceable to the live sync. Estimated Mining Cost is a modelled estimate and is omitted entirely when its data is unavailable or stale.

The four prices

Each answers a different question, from a different constituency. Together they place the market price in context no single metric can.

The market
Market Price
What are traders paying today?
$65.33K

The price itself — the anchor every reference below is measured against.

The trend
200-Day Moving Average
Where does the long-term average sit?
$72.14K-9.4% vs market

Price is 9% below its long-term trend.

The holders
Realised Price
What did the average coin cost its owner?
$52.43K+24.6% vs market

The network's aggregate cost basis — the average holder is in profit.

The miners
Estimated Mining CostEstimated
What does a new coin cost to produce?
$61.57K+6.1% vs market

A modelled electricity estimate — not an exact break-even or a guaranteed support level.

How unusual is today?

Every week since 2022-08-01 — the earliest date all four reference prices are observed together — classified by its configuration. Historical record, not a forecast.

2022-08-01 — Above two2022-08-08 — Above two2022-08-15 — Above two2022-08-22 — Above one2022-08-29 — Above one2022-09-05 — Above one2022-09-12 — Above two2022-09-19 — Above one2022-09-26 — Above one2022-10-03 — Above one2022-10-10 — Above one2022-10-17 — Above one2022-10-24 — Above one2022-10-31 — Above one2022-11-07 — Above one2022-11-14 — Above one2022-11-21 — Above one2022-11-28 — Below all three2022-12-05 — Below all three2022-12-12 — Above one2022-12-19 — Above one2022-12-26 — Above one2023-01-02 — Above one2023-01-09 — Above one2023-01-16 — Above all three2023-01-23 — Above all three2023-01-30 — Above all three2023-02-06 — Above all three2023-02-13 — Above all three2023-02-20 — Above all three2023-02-27 — Above all three2023-03-06 — Above all three2023-03-13 — Above all three2023-03-20 — Above all three2023-03-27 — Above all three2023-04-03 — Above all three2023-04-10 — Above all three2023-04-17 — Above all three2023-04-24 — Above all three2023-05-01 — Above all three2023-05-08 — Above all three2023-05-15 — Above all three2023-05-22 — Above all three2023-05-29 — Above all three2023-06-05 — Above all three2023-06-12 — Above all three2023-06-19 — Above all three2023-06-26 — Above all three2023-07-03 — Above all three2023-07-10 — Above all three2023-07-17 — Above all three2023-07-24 — Above all three2023-07-31 — Above all three2023-08-07 — Above all three2023-08-14 — Above all three2023-08-21 — Above two2023-08-28 — Above two2023-09-04 — Above two2023-09-11 — Above two2023-09-18 — Above two2023-09-25 — Above two2023-10-02 — Above two2023-10-09 — Above two2023-10-16 — Above all three2023-10-23 — Above all three2023-10-30 — Above all three2023-11-06 — Above all three2023-11-13 — Above all three2023-11-20 — Above all three2023-11-27 — Above all three2023-12-04 — Above all three2023-12-11 — Above all three2023-12-18 — Above all three2023-12-25 — Above all three2024-01-01 — Above all three2024-01-08 — Above all three2024-01-15 — Above all three2024-01-22 — Above all three2024-01-29 — Above all three2024-02-05 — Above all three2024-02-12 — Above all three2024-02-19 — Above all three2024-02-26 — Above all three2024-03-04 — Above all three2024-03-11 — Above all three2024-03-18 — Above all three2024-03-25 — Above all three2024-04-01 — Above all three2024-04-08 — Above all three2024-04-15 — Above all three2024-04-19 — Above all three2024-04-26 — Above all three2024-05-03 — Above all three2024-05-10 — Above all three2024-05-17 — Above all three2024-05-24 — Above all three2024-05-31 — Above all three2024-06-07 — Above all three2024-06-14 — Above all three2024-06-21 — Above all three2024-06-28 — Above all three2024-07-05 — Above two2024-07-12 — Above two2024-07-19 — Above all three2024-07-26 — Above all three2024-08-02 — Above two2024-08-09 — Above one · matches today2024-08-16 — Above two2024-08-23 — Above all three2024-08-30 — Above two2024-09-06 — Above one · matches today2024-09-13 — Above two2024-09-20 — Above two2024-09-27 — Above all three2024-10-04 — Above two2024-10-11 — Above two2024-10-18 — Above all three2024-10-25 — Above two2024-11-01 — Above two2024-11-08 — Above all three2024-11-15 — Above all three2024-11-22 — Above all three2024-11-29 — Above all three2024-12-06 — Above all three2024-12-13 — Above all three2024-12-20 — Above all three2024-12-27 — Above all three2025-01-03 — Above all three2025-01-10 — Above all three2025-01-17 — Above all three2025-01-24 — Above all three2025-01-31 — Above all three2025-02-07 — Above all three2025-02-14 — Above all three2025-02-21 — Above all three2025-02-28 — Above all three2025-03-07 — Above all three2025-03-14 — Above all three2025-03-21 — Above two2025-03-28 — Above two2025-04-04 — Above two2025-04-11 — Above two2025-04-18 — Above two2025-04-25 — Above all three2025-05-02 — Above all three2025-05-09 — Above all three2025-05-16 — Above all three2025-05-23 — Above all three2025-05-30 — Above all three2025-06-06 — Above all three2025-06-13 — Above all three2025-06-20 — Above all three2025-06-27 — Above all three2025-07-04 — Above all three2025-07-11 — Above all three2025-07-18 — Above all three2025-07-25 — Above all three2025-08-01 — Above all three2025-08-08 — Above all three2025-08-15 — Above all three2025-08-22 — Above all three2025-08-29 — Above all three2025-09-05 — Above all three2025-09-12 — Above all three2025-09-19 — Above all three2025-09-26 — Above all three2025-10-03 — Above all three2025-10-10 — Above all three2025-10-17 — Above two2025-10-24 — Above all three2025-10-31 — Above all three2025-11-07 — Above two2025-11-14 — Above two2025-11-21 — Above one · matches today2025-11-28 — Above two2025-12-05 — Above two2025-12-12 — Above two2025-12-19 — Above two2025-12-26 — Above one · matches today2026-01-02 — Above two2026-01-09 — Above two2026-01-16 — Above two2026-01-23 — Above two2026-01-30 — Above two2026-02-06 — Above two2026-02-13 — Above two2026-02-20 — Above two2026-02-27 — Above one · matches today2026-03-06 — Above one · matches today2026-03-13 — Above two2026-03-20 — Above two2026-03-27 — Above one · matches today2026-04-03 — Above two2026-04-10 — Above two2026-04-17 — Above two2026-04-24 — Above two2026-05-01 — Above two2026-05-08 — Above two2026-05-15 — Above two2026-05-22 — Above two2026-05-29 — Above two2026-06-05 — Above one · matches today2026-06-12 — Above one · matches today2026-06-19 — Above two2026-06-26 — Above one · matches today2026-07-03 — Above one · matches today2026-07-10 — Above two2026-07-17 — Above two2026-07-24 — Above one · matches today
Below all threeAbove oneAbove twoAbove all threeMatches today’s configuration
Weeks on record
209
since 2022-08-01
In today's configuration
5.7%
of all weeks
Current spell
1 wk
unbroken
Above all three
57.4%
of all weeks

The last time Bitcoin held this configuration before the current spell was the week of 2026-07-03. See Similar Moments for the full analogue read.

The gaps over time · since 2016
vs 200-day averagevs Realised Pricevs Est. Mining Cost
halvinglens.com · four reference prices
What actually happened next

The real price paths that followed each of the 11 prior weeks sharing today’s configuration (since 2022-08), indexed to 100 at the matching week. The most recent match is highlighted. Historical paths — never an average, never a forecast.

halvinglens.com · four reference prices

Why these four prices?

Three of the four are observed; one is clearly labelled as an estimate. None of them is a prediction.

They answer different questions.

The trend says where price has been heading; Realised Price says what the average holder actually paid; the mining estimate says roughly what new supply costs to produce. When one is stretched, the others show whether the stretch is broad or narrow.

When they agree, context is strong.

Bitcoin trading above all three references has historically accompanied established uptrends; below all three has been rare and historically clustered near cycle lows. Neither state predicts what comes next — the record simply shows where such weeks sat in past cycles.

When they disagree, read the gaps.

In late 2015 and late 2018, price sat below the modelled mining cost while holders were under water — periods the record now marks as late-bear. In late 2021, price stood far above every reference at once. Disagreement is information about how stretched the market is, in either direction.

What this is not.

No reference price is a floor, a ceiling, or a target. Price has spent extended periods below every one of them. The Estimated Mining Cost is a modelled electricity estimate with documented assumptions — see the methodology. Historical context, not prediction, not financial advice.

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Continue your journey

You've seen today's configuration. How does it fit the full weekly read of where Bitcoin stands?

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The State of Bitcoin
Similar Moments — which past weeks look like today Learn — the concepts behind the metrics