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Live-derivedderived: per-cycle band of price vs cycle peak

Rainbow band

Where price sits relative to the long-term power-law trend. Bands run from 'Fire sale' to 'Maximum bubble territory'.

Cycle 5 · with zones

Current cycle since the 2024 halving — use the range buttons to zoom in.
halvinglens.com · rainbow
Current reading
5.9band
FOMO
Fire sale ·FOMO· Maximum bubble
Updated 16 Oct 2026, 11:01 UTC

What it's telling us today

Rainbow currently reads 5.9 — FOMO. An expansion range: above long-term averages, but not yet euphoric.

Why this matters

The most-shared single chart in Bitcoin culture. Used as a sentiment thermometer at every dinner-table conversation.

Zones

  • Fire sale— → 1.0
  • Accumulate1.0 → 3.0
  • HODL3.0 → 5.0
  • FOMO5.0 → 7.0
  • Maximum bubble7.0 → —
4-cycle overlay

Rainbow band across every halving cycle

Aligned to day zero of each halving. The dashed line is today, day 908.

Cycle 2 — first halving
Cycle 3 — second halving
Cycle 4 — third halving
Cycle 5 — fourth halvingcurrent
halvinglens.com · rainbow · overlay

Where each cycle sat at day 908

Cycle 2 — first halving
3.2band
HODL
Fire sale ·HODL· Maximum bubble
Cycle 3 — second halving
3.0band
HODL
Fire sale ·HODL· Maximum bubble
Cycle 4 — third halving
3.9band
HODL
Fire sale ·HODL· Maximum bubble
Today · cycle 5
5.9band
Fire sale ·FOMO· Maximum bubble
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