Is Bitcoin in a Bull Market?
There is no official definition of a Bitcoin bull market, so an honest answer starts with measurements rather than labels. HalvingLens reads market state through the Four Reference Prices: the market price against the 200-day trend, against the average holder's cost basis (the realised price), and against the estimated mining cost. Which side of each reference price sits — and for how long — is the closest thing to a bull-or-bear classification that the record actually supports.
As of 3 October 2026, Bitcoin's market price sits above all three of the reference prices it is measured against — the 200-day trend, the average holder's cost basis, and the estimated mining cost. Price has held today's configuration for 6 consecutive weeks; configurations like today's account for 58.3% of the 218-week record. The modules below add the broader market-health picture and the current cycle's scorecard.
What history tells us
How HalvingLens classifies market state
A label like “bull market” compresses three separate measurements into one word, and loses information doing it. The framework keeps them separate: each reference price is a different lens — trend followers' (the 200-day average), holders' (the realised price), and producers' (the mining-cost estimate). The framework therefore reports the configuration and its duration directly, rather than compressing them into a single bull-or-bear label. Each reference is only ever compared over its honestly observed window — none of the three series is extended backwards beyond what was actually measured.
What past phases produced
The advances were large and the timing loose: cycle advances from halving-day to cycle peak measured +9,103% (2012 cycle), +2,913% (2016 cycle) and +686% to the November 2021 high (2020 cycle). In the 2012 cycle the highest close came 371 days after the halving; in 2016, 525 days. In the 2020 cycle the November 2021 high came about 18 months after the halving — though that cycle's single highest close actually came later, in March 2024, weeks before the next halving.
And the reversals were severe: Each completed bull-market peak was followed by a decline of 85% (from December 2013, over 406 days), 84% (from December 2017, over 364 days) and 77% (from November 2021, over 366 days) to the following low. Three completed cycles is a very small sample — far too small to treat any of these patterns as a law.
Today's dataLive · updated 2026-10-03
Bitcoin trades at $84.52K — above its 200-day moving average (+18%), above its Realised Price (+59%), and above its Estimated Mining Cost (+35%). The nearest reference price is the 200-day moving average, 18% below the market. Since 2022-08, Bitcoin has spent 58.3% of weeks in this configuration, including the last 6 weeks. Historical context, not a prediction.
Composite health reads 60/100 — Neutral, tracked daily across the published record.
The cycle environment, at a glance
A multi-factor read of cycle conditions today. This summarises historical cycle conditions — it is not a buy or sell signal.
Historically neither overheated nor deeply undervalued — a middle-of-the-range environment.
Previous cycles had usually peaked by this point, but this cycle remains cooler by price behaviour.
Price sits around the 60th percentile of its historical range versus its long-term average.
Recent ETF flows are positive; cumulative demand remains structurally important.
Sentiment reads greed — worth watching as a contrarian signal.
Miner revenue is elevated versus its yearly average.
Versus past cycles, today sits above the midpoint of historical stretch.
This score summarises historical cycle conditions. It is not financial advice, and not a prediction of price.
Things to watch
Related questions
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MVRV Z-Score has entered Mid-cycle.
Current reading: 1.03
RHODL Ratio is approaching its Deep value range. More →
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Historical context, not a prediction. · Editorially reviewed 2026-08-01.
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You've read what the record shows. How do these threads come together into one calm read, each morning?