Where are we in the Bitcoin cycle?
Bitcoin is currently tracking below every previous cycle at the same point after the halving.
- BTC price
- $82,562.56+1.0% · 24h
- Cycle day
- 90262% through · to 9 Oct 2026
- Phase
- Mid-cycle expansion
- Market health
- 58/100Neutral
What changed?
Last 7 daysAll 15 monitored readings held within their own ordinary 7-day ranges.
State of the cycle
Market board
RHODL Ratio1,185+13.7%Unusual
1,043 → 1,185
A larger 24-hour move than most in its own record.
Larger than 93% of 24-hour moves · 1,535 observations since Jul 2022
Now at its highest in 30 days.
measured to 8 Oct 2026
View RHODL RatioFear & GreedGreed64+5 pointsNotable
59 → 64
A moderate move by this reading's own record.
Larger than 75% of 24-hour moves · 3,169 observations since Feb 2018
Has remained in Greed for 7 consecutive weeks.
View Fear & GreedReserve Risk0.00062−1.89%Notable
0.00063 → 0.00062
A moderate move by this reading's own record.
Larger than 68% of 24-hour moves · 1,535 observations since Jul 2022
Still 7% above its 30-day low.
measured to 8 Oct 2026
View Reserve RiskRealised Price$53,290+0.08%Notable
$53,247 → $53,290
A moderate move by this reading's own record.
Larger than 64% of 24-hour moves · 1,529 observations since Jul 2022
Now at its highest in 30 days.
measured to 2 Oct 2026
View Realised Price
MVRV Z-Score1.04+0.04 pointsNotable
1.00 → 1.04
A moderate move by this reading's own record.
Larger than 57% of 24-hour moves · 1,529 observations since Jul 2022
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 2 Oct 2026
View MVRV Z-ScoreDrawdown from High-34+1 pointNotable
-35 → -34
A moderate move by this reading's own record.
Larger than 50% of 24-hour moves · 5,927 observations since Jul 2010
Still 3 points below its 30-day high.
measured to 9 Oct 2026
View Drawdown from HighPuell Multiple1.05+0.01 pointsRoutine
1.03 → 1.05
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 42% of 24-hour moves · 5,563 observations since Jul 2011
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 9 Oct 2026
View Puell MultipleMarket Price$82,563+1.02%Routine
$81,732 → $82,563
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 38% of 24-hour moves · 5,927 observations since Jul 2010
Still 5% below its 30-day high.
measured to 9 Oct 2026
View Market PriceMayer Multiple1.15+0.01 pointsRoutine
1.14 → 1.15
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 37% of 24-hour moves · 5,728 observations since Feb 2011
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 9 Oct 2026
View Mayer MultipleSOPR1.008+0.003 pointsRoutine
1.005 → 1.008
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 35% of 24-hour moves · 1,529 observations since Jul 2022
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 2 Oct 2026
View SOPRNUPL0.370−0.002 pointsRoutine
0.372 → 0.370
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 21% of 24-hour moves · 1,529 observations since Jul 2022
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 2 Oct 2026
View NUPL200-Day Average$71,849+0.08%Routine
$71,789 → $71,849
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 15% of 24-hour moves · 5,728 observations since Feb 2011
Now at its highest in 30 days.
measured to 9 Oct 2026
View 200-Day AverageETF Net Flows1-calendar-day net+$21.1M+$21.1MRoutine
Previous 24 hours: −$244.1M
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 7% of 24-hour moves · 341 observations since Jun 2025
Monthly net flows remain positive.
net over 1 calendar days · trading-day series · measured to 9 Oct 2026
View ETF Net Flows
Est. Mining Cost — series resolves every 7 days — a 1-day movement is not observable
Accumulation Index — series resolves every 7 days — a 1-day movement is not observable
ETF demand
7 trading days · to 9 Oct 2026Previous 7 trading days: +$1.34B
Change: −$1.72B
+$432.51M in, −$821.09M out — the largest outflow day (7 Oct 2026, −$487.07M) exceeded the week's whole net.
The week swung from net inflow to net outflow.
What did this same point look like in previous cycles?
Every cycle aligned from its halving day. Drag anywhere on the chart — or use the slider — to place all four cycles at the same day and read what actually happened.
The current cycle has the weakest return from halving of the four cycles at this stage.
The real price change each completed cycle recorded after its day 902. The current cycle shows nothing here — the current cycle's future has not happened yet.
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Historical context, not a prediction.