Cycle dashboard

Where are we in the Bitcoin cycle?

Bitcoin is currently tracking below every previous cycle at the same point after the halving.

BTC price: $78,601.40-0.4% · 24h
Cycle day: 857
59% through · to 25 Aug 2026
Phase: Mid-cycle expansion
Market health: 65/100
Neutral

Prices as of 26 Aug 2026, 00:51 UTC

What changed?

Last 7 days

Active week

2 of 15 monitored readings held within their own ordinary 7-day ranges — 13 moved materially.

Worth looking at

NUPL+0.144 pointsExceptionalOne of the largest 7-day moves in its observed record.Larger than 99% of 7-day moves · 1,484 observations since Jul 2022
MVRV Z-Score+0.48 pointsExceptionalOne of the largest 7-day moves in its observed record.Larger than 98% of 7-day moves · 1,484 observations since Jul 2022
Reserve Risk+21.7%ExceptionalOne of the largest 7-day moves in its observed record.Larger than 98% of 7-day moves · 1,484 observations since Jul 2022
Accumulation Index+13 pointsExceptionalOne of the largest 7-day moves in its observed record.Larger than 97% of 7-day moves · 718 observations since Nov 2012
RHODL Ratio+56.8%ExceptionalOne of the largest 7-day moves in its observed record.Larger than 96% of 7-day moves · 1,484 observations since Jul 2022
Drawdown from High+11 pointsUnusualA larger 7-day move than most in its own record.Larger than 94% of 7-day moves · 5,876 observations since Jul 2010
ETF Net Flows+$1.96BUnusualA larger 7-day move than most in its own record.Larger than 93% of 7-day moves · 304 observations since Jun 2025
Market Price+21.5%UnusualMarket Price moved from below to above the 200-day average.Larger than 92% of 7-day moves · 5,876 observations since Jul 2010
SOPR+0.020 pointsUnusualA larger 7-day move than most in its own record.Larger than 88% of 7-day moves · 1,484 observations since Jul 2022
Fear & Greed+19 pointsUnusualFear & Greed moved from Neutral to Greed.Larger than 88% of 7-day moves · 3,118 observations since Feb 2018
Mayer Multiple+0.20 pointsUnusualA larger 7-day move than most in its own record.Larger than 86% of 7-day moves · 5,677 observations since Feb 2011
Puell Multiple+0.17 pointsUnusualA larger 7-day move than most in its own record.Larger than 82% of 7-day moves · 5,512 observations since Jul 2011

Also moving

Est. Mining Cost−11.3%Notable

Metric Watch · today

Most interesting · what deserves attention

NUPL has entered Optimism.

0.335+0.144 pointsExceptional

+0.144 points over the last 7 days, out of Hope / fear.

Larger than 99% of 7-day moves · 1,484 observations since Jul 2022

New · since 20 Aug 2026

View NUPLMeasured to 24 Aug 2026, this reading's latest observation.

State of the cycle

Accumulation

35/100

Historically Attractive7D: 22 → 35weekly seriessince 4 Jul 2026View

Sentiment

65/100

Greed7D: 46 → 65since 20 Aug 2026View

ETF demand

+$2.20B

6-day inflow streaknet over 7 trading daysprevious 7 trading days: +$139.87MView

Market board

NUPL0.335+0.150 pointsUnusual
0.185 → 0.335
A larger 30-day move than most in its own record.
Larger than 91% of 30-day moves · 1,461 observations since Jul 2022
Now at its highest in 30 days.
measured to 24 Aug 2026
View NUPL
Fear & GreedGreed65+35 pointsUnusual
30 → 65
Fear & Greed moved from Fear to Greed.
Larger than 91% of 30-day moves · 3,095 observations since Feb 2018
Still 9 points below its 30-day high.
View Fear & Greed
RHODL Ratio1,117+57.3%Unusual
710 → 1,117
A larger 30-day move than most in its own record.
Larger than 87% of 30-day moves · 1,461 observations since Jul 2022
Still 12% below its 30-day high.
measured to 24 Aug 2026
View RHODL Ratio
Reserve Risk0.00062+20.7%Unusual
0.00051 → 0.00062
A larger 30-day move than most in its own record.
Larger than 85% of 30-day moves · 1,461 observations since Jul 2022
Now at its highest in 30 days.
measured to 24 Aug 2026
View Reserve Risk
Market Price$78,601+20.3%Unusual
$65,329 → $78,601
Market Price moved from below to above the 200-day average.
Larger than 65% of 30-day moves · 5,853 observations since Jul 2010
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 25 Aug 2026
View Market Price
MVRV Z-Score0.83+0.44 pointsNotable
0.39 → 0.83
A moderate move by this reading's own record.
Larger than 77% of 30-day moves · 1,461 observations since Jul 2022
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 24 Aug 2026
View MVRV Z-Score
Accumulation IndexHistorically Attractive35+13 pointsNotable
22 → 35
A moderate move by this reading's own record.
Larger than 73% of 30-day moves · 714 observations since Nov 2012
Has remained in Historically Attractive for 7 consecutive weeks.
weekly series · measured to 22 Aug 2026
View Accumulation Index
Drawdown from High-37+11 pointsNotable
-48 → -37
A moderate move by this reading's own record.
Larger than 72% of 30-day moves · 5,853 observations since Jul 2010
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 25 Aug 2026
View Drawdown from High
Mayer Multiple1.14+0.23 pointsNotable
0.91 → 1.14
A moderate move by this reading's own record.
Larger than 67% of 30-day moves · 5,654 observations since Feb 2011
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 25 Aug 2026
View Mayer Multiple
SOPR1.019+0.011 pointsNotable
1.008 → 1.019
A moderate move by this reading's own record.
Larger than 61% of 30-day moves · 1,461 observations since Jul 2022
Now at its highest in 30 days.
measured to 24 Aug 2026
View SOPR
ETF Net Flows30-calendar-day net+$2.66B+$2.66BNotable
Previous 30 days: −$664.3M
A moderate move by this reading's own record.
Larger than 61% of 30-day moves · 288 observations since Jun 2025
Monthly net flows remain positive.
net over 30 calendar days · trading-day series · measured to 24 Aug 2026
View ETF Net Flows

Within their own ordinary 30-day range

Puell Multiple0.95+0.20 pointsNotable
0.75 → 0.95
A moderate move by this reading's own record.
Larger than 58% of 30-day moves · 5,489 observations since Jul 2011
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 25 Aug 2026
View Puell Multiple
200-Day Average$69,127−4.18%Routine
$72,141 → $69,127
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 25% of 30-day moves · 5,654 observations since Feb 2011
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 25 Aug 2026
View 200-Day Average
Est. Mining Cost$59,677+1.83%Routine
$58,603 → $59,677
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 9% of 30-day moves · 891 observations since Jan 2016
Still 14% below its 30-day high.
weekly series · measured to 24 Aug 2026
View Est. Mining Cost
Realised Price$52,473+0.00%Routine
$52,471 → $52,473
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 0% of 30-day moves · 1,461 observations since Jul 2022
Now at its highest in 30 days.
measured to 24 Aug 2026
View Realised Price

Ranked by the size of each move against that reading's own history.Full market snapshot

ETF demand

7 trading days · to 24 Aug 2026

+$2.20B

net over 7 trading days

Previous 7 trading days: +$139.87M

Change: +$2.06B

Spread across the week — the largest single day (20 Aug 2026) contributed 28% of the net.

6 straight trading days of net inflows.

View ETF Flows

The Lens

What did this same point look like in previous cycles?

Every cycle aligned from its halving day. Drag anywhere on the chart — or use the slider — to place all four cycles at the same day and read what actually happened.

Day 85725 Aug 2026 in the current cycle

of 1439 · drag the chart or use the slider

Standing context · since day 264

The current cycle has the weakest return from halving of the four cycles at this stage.

Every cycle at day 857

2012 cycle

4 Apr 2015$253.9520.6× from halving-77.6% from highMayer 0.82

2016 cycle

13 Nov 2018$6.27K9.61× from halving-68.1% from highMayer 0.90

2020 cycle

15 Sept 2022$19.70K2.29× from halving-70.8% from highMayer 0.66

Now (2024)

25 Aug 2026$78.60K1.21× from halving-37.0% from highMayer 1.14

What happened next · observed history

The real price change each completed cycle recorded after its day 857. The current cycle shows nothing here — the current cycle's future has not happened yet.

2012 cycle

+30d−5.9%+60d−11.3%+90d+0.8%

2016 cycle

+30d−48.0%+60d−42.3%+90d−42.7%

2020 cycle

+30d−3.2%+60d−15.6%+90d−9.6%

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