Where are we in the Bitcoin cycle?
Bitcoin is currently tracking below every previous cycle at the same point after the halving.
- BTC price
- $82,562.56+1.0% · 24h
- Cycle day
- 90262% through · to 9 Oct 2026
- Phase
- Mid-cycle expansion
- Market health
- 58/100Neutral
What changed?
Last 7 daysAll 15 monitored readings held within their own ordinary 7-day ranges.
State of the cycle
Market board
RHODL Ratio1,185+50.0%Unusual
790 → 1,185
A larger 30-day move than most in its own record.
Larger than 83% of 30-day moves · 1,506 observations since Jul 2022
Now at its highest in 30 days.
measured to 8 Oct 2026
View RHODL Ratio
NUPL0.370+0.053 pointsNotable
0.317 → 0.370
A moderate move by this reading's own record.
Larger than 56% of 30-day moves · 1,500 observations since Jul 2022
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 2 Oct 2026
View NUPLMVRV Z-Score1.04+0.22 pointsRoutine
0.82 → 1.04
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 48% of 30-day moves · 1,500 observations since Jul 2022
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 2 Oct 2026
View MVRV Z-ScoreSOPR1.008+0.007 pointsRoutine
1.001 → 1.008
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 45% of 30-day moves · 1,500 observations since Jul 2022
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 2 Oct 2026
View SOPRRealised Price$53,290+1.16%Routine
$52,680 → $53,290
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 43% of 30-day moves · 1,500 observations since Jul 2022
Now at its highest in 30 days.
measured to 2 Oct 2026
View Realised PriceETF Net Flows30-calendar-day net+$1.66B+$1.66BRoutine
Previous 30 days: $3.42B
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 36% of 30-day moves · 321 observations since Jun 2025
Monthly net flows remain positive.
net over 30 calendar days · trading-day series · measured to 9 Oct 2026
View ETF Net FlowsPuell Multiple1.05+0.09 pointsRoutine
0.96 → 1.05
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 35% of 30-day moves · 5,534 observations since Jul 2011
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 9 Oct 2026
View Puell MultipleAccumulation IndexHistorically Attractive39+4 pointsRoutine
35 → 39
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 34% of 30-day moves · 720 observations since Nov 2012
Has remained in Historically Attractive for 12 consecutive weeks.
weekly series · measured to 3 Oct 2026
View Accumulation IndexDrawdown from High-34+3 pointsRoutine
-37 → -34
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 34% of 30-day moves · 5,898 observations since Jul 2010
Still 3 points below its 30-day high.
measured to 9 Oct 2026
View Drawdown from HighEst. Mining Cost$64,728−5.57%Routine
$68,546 → $64,728
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 29% of 30-day moves · 898 observations since Jan 2016
Still 16% above its 30-day low.
weekly series · measured to 9 Oct 2026
View Est. Mining CostFear & GreedGreed64−5 pointsRoutine
69 → 64
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 27% of 30-day moves · 3,140 observations since Feb 2018
Has remained in Greed for 7 consecutive weeks.
View Fear & GreedMarket Price$82,563+5.57%Routine
$78,207 → $82,563
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 25% of 30-day moves · 5,898 observations since Jul 2010
Still 5% below its 30-day high.
measured to 9 Oct 2026
View Market Price200-Day Average$71,849+2.76%Routine
$69,918 → $71,849
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 17% of 30-day moves · 5,699 observations since Feb 2011
Now at its highest in 30 days.
measured to 9 Oct 2026
View 200-Day AverageReserve Risk0.00062+2.30%Routine
0.00061 → 0.00062
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 16% of 30-day moves · 1,506 observations since Jul 2022
Still 7% below its 30-day high.
measured to 8 Oct 2026
View Reserve RiskMayer Multiple1.15+0.03 pointsRoutine
1.12 → 1.15
An ordinary move within this reading's own record.
Larger than 12% of 30-day moves · 5,699 observations since Feb 2011
Still within its 30-day range.
measured to 9 Oct 2026
View Mayer Multiple
ETF demand
7 trading days · to 9 Oct 2026Previous 7 trading days: +$1.34B
Change: −$1.72B
+$432.51M in, −$821.09M out — the largest outflow day (7 Oct 2026, −$487.07M) exceeded the week's whole net.
The week swung from net inflow to net outflow.
What did this same point look like in previous cycles?
Every cycle aligned from its halving day. Drag anywhere on the chart — or use the slider — to place all four cycles at the same day and read what actually happened.
The current cycle has the weakest return from halving of the four cycles at this stage.
The real price change each completed cycle recorded after its day 902. The current cycle shows nothing here — the current cycle's future has not happened yet.
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Historical context, not a prediction.